I’m not sure to what level you are paying attention to this conflict, but I must say this is the most significant global conflict since WW2.
Of course I hope I’m wrong, but I’m convinced that history is being written, and what we are witnessing is the beginning of WWIII.
I do not see Putin backing down, at all. He’s ratcheting up ruthlessness every day, and his resolve is growing stronger. Sanctions only seem to enflame him.
Nor do I see Ukraine surrendering at any point, now and in the future.
There are only two outcomes that I see:
- NATO/western world becomes militarily involved. Putin escalates with nuclear weapons. Western world retaliates. Nuclear war as we’ve never seen. Putin loses, world loses.
- NATO/Western world abstains militarily, continues imposing sanctions. Ukraine will be razed by Russian forces, completely destroyed, and occupied by Russia. If they are occupied, they will genocide all Ukrainian nationalism resistance. Russian economy is temporarily destroyed in the process, but Putin rebuilds and effectively expands his empire. This bolsters Putin’s confidence and propels propaganda machine, invigorating the populous, and continues the precedent of annexing additional Soviet/bordering countries, which will inevitably lead to more invasions. Eventually a line will be crossed, and we will be forced to engage with a bigger more powerful and hardened Russian military force. Inevitably, Nuclear war will ensue.
A slim third outcome is that Russian people, through the internet and social media, are able to penetrate through the propaganda, unify against Putin, and depose/assassinate him. I don’t think this is likely to happen, however.