I’m trying to do a thought experiment and model a scenario, maybe a betting situation, where there are 100 people, and 10 people have 90% the chips, and the 90 remaining people have 10% of the chips, and all 100 sit around a table and must play a few hands and place bets every day.
If one of the 90 people is feeling lucky they’ll convince one of the high rollers to lend a stack of chips to play a hand. If they win that hand, they pay back the high roller and now will have a seat next to the high rollers.
But mostly 90% of low rolling players have to shine the shoes and clean the houses of the people with all the chips, just so they can get a few chips of their own to have a seat at the table to play.
And every day all 100 come and sit around the betting table, and place bets. The poor can only afford to place the ante.
If you took a median sampling of the players, you’d think this was a pretty sad situation.
Everyone is poor, or owes the high rollers some chips. They all work for the high rollers, since they have all the chips that are required to play a bet every day.
But for some reason the pot is always so big!
It’s like. How can a pot be so high priced, when everyone else is so poor? The only explanation is that we’re are a handful of people who are placing bets and competing with each owner
Trying to understand how the fuckin stock market is increasing
Despite 33 million unemployed
Despite GDP contracting 30% 2nd qtr.
Despite estimated -5% GDP growth in 2020
Like what would cause the stocks to unhinge so dramatically.
I can only conclude this stimulus basically just went straight to people who have money already, who just decided to keep that money in the market, since they had excess cash on hand.
So this artificially inflated market values
What happens when we see earnings reports?
And all these companies are overvalued?
Will that even matter?
Probably not. Not to the people with money.
It’s just a betting game between the wealthy
Value is relative to the player
They’re taking a winner take all game
That’s the only corollary to this situation
They’re playing a winner take all game*
At some point yes, the bets are outrageous. They’re unhinged, to the median player.
After 90% of the players are essentially eliminated, the rest are relegated to simply placing an “ante”. It’s just to make it seem like there is a competitive playing field.
I’m trying to rationalize this surreal market divergence from the economy.
I just think it’s obvious that there is a separate game being played
The market is not public
It’s a private game
They just take our ante