I doubt Trump will win
I think he has far less support than he did the first election
I don’t think there has been as many trump converts as there have been defectors.
He lost by 3 million in 2016.
He’s losing key battle ground states
He’s the least favorable polling president in history, since Nixon
However! … His propaganda machine is massive
Fox News is the single biggest free propaganda outlet for him, and it has massive viewership amongst his monolithic base
He spends far more on propaganda/promotion/advertising than any other politician in history
His social media spending is outrageously expensive
So there is a very skewed perspective on his viability
It’s mostly smoke and mirrors, which is what he excels at
At this point everyone acknowledges he’s an idiot, and very few people in his base admit he’s a very stable genius
It’s obvious he’s an idiot
At this point people just don’t care, because they don’t think it’s a threat
Or they actually believe that there are bigger threats than his idiocy.
But many realize the biggest threat is not the “left” or “Antifa”, but his complete incompetence
He is a master showman, and he maintains a perfectly consistent tough guy persona
Which to the layman is a very attractive persona.
His other loyalists merely see him as a means to an end. They can muscle their policies through with him in office, since he’s mostly inept of any innate conviction or vision or principles, other than self glorification
So there is a cabal of special interests groups that manipulate Trump through flattery to push their agendas
So the only way he’ll will is if he delegitimizes the election results.
He’s already crying mail fraud, and he’s installed a post master general in July of this year who, incredibly enough, has managed to disrupt 245 years of reliable USPS delivery
I means it’s predictable what will happen.
He’ll lose, and then he will cry fraud
He’ll issue executive orders. He’ll demand a revote. He’ll say the system was rigged. He’ll say the fee state is out to get him. He’ll make some outlandish excuse about why he lost
Then it’s a matter of what happens next
Trump’s been handed everything, and he’s never had to confront public defeat.
He’s inherited enough money to allow him to skirt responsibility, or any other reality.
Leverage the legal system to pay off people. Litigate. Sue. Find loopholes. Etc.
His propaganda machine is setting the stage in his bases mind that the only way he’ll lose is if other’s cheat
Which is a clear projection of his entire life story
I imagine when he loses, he’ll cry fraud, because he has created an appearance of fraud… but no idea what happens next.
In the authoritarian playbook, there are a few options:
- He demands a revote- which won’t happen.
- He acts as if there is fraudulent “deep state” coup and establishes his own coup— and issues executive orders to mobilize CBP or DHS or ICE or one of those fringe paramilitary police forces he’s been strategically currying favor with.
- His radicalized loyalist base mobilizes at his order to “take back America” and they storm local and state governments and federal governments.
Because the reality is, according to the Mueller report, even though there is plenty of fraudulent law breaking to put Trump in jail, so long as he is president, he can’t be persecuted
But as soon as he is no longer president, he will be persecuted for a long long long list of criminal offenses
Just like all 30+ of his various cabinet members and campaign team and staff have been persecuted, convicted, or jailed… and he knows this.
Basically everyone around him breaks the law.
He uses money which provides him legal expertise to exploit loopholes or simply outspend to settle to avoid any responsibility or consequence.
But as a public official his deeds are under public scrutiny and accountability, and now most have come into focus. He cannot escape them except through remaining president
So if he loses he’ll be persecuted and a jailed
Like all of his associates
So there is no way he legitimately except by creating the perception that he lost by fraud.
Which provides him the justification to invoke executive powers and orders beyond the scope of a president, and consolidate power into authoritarian control
But this probably won’t happen
History can only repeat itself so many times
This time will be different