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William Dare

Tag: lending

Wealth Disparities and Debt

Despite a steady increase in aggregate output/ GDP over the past several decades income inequality has risen exponentially. From the 1970’s to present, earnings of the top 5% of citizens have risen steeply while earnings of the bottom 95% have stagnated (adjusted minimum wages is lowest in history). As it stands a small fraction of citizens own the vast majority of capital assets, liquid or illiquid, while the other 80% of the US population owns 7% of the wealth. Compounding multiple decades of real wage stagnation has been a continual rise in the adjusted consumer price index. Due to stagnating wages and rising prices, the savings rate for citizens– specifically the low and middle class– has seen a chronic decline and historical lows.  As a result of these financial pressures the US population has accrued massive consumer debt to maintain consumption, of which 33% is revolving credit (such as credit cards) and 67% is comprised of loans (such as mortgage, car, student, etc).

Due to the dollar’s position as the worlds reserve currency, the past several decades have seen rising global account imbalance as foreign investment in the US steadily increases. Most of this foreign investment wealth originated from gains in the emerging Asian markets and increases in commodity, energy, and oil prices. With the US leading the world in developed financial markets, foreign investors are attracted to the financial liquidity of US markets. In addition, they perceive US assets as safe investing due to its reliable historical growth and stable government.

In the years following the tech bubble collapse, many believed that the low interest rates post 2001 would cause a run on the dollar. Instead foreigner investors looked for other American safe-assets. This high demand, combined with competitive greed and lack of regulation, led to the development of debt markets and their financial instruments and securities such as CDO’s and CDS’s. (Financial institutions placed additional pressure on mortgage lenders to find borrowers to meet demand. With rising real estate prices, this wasn’t difficult. These debt markets had exceptional yields and were thought to be reliable and safe assets.)

Due to bargaining power imbalances and habit persistence over income, lower class wage inequality has risen with increases in aggregate output. The rise in income inequality has been much greater than the rise in consumption inequality due to borrowing and taking on debt; that is, despite low and middle class income income/ wage stagnation, borrowing has allowed their consumption to increase, fueling domestic demand. However, because the lower class does not have access to international financial markets, they must borrow from wealthy domestic lenders. (From 1998-2008 private credit from other financial institutions, i.e. credit cards, loans, etc., rose from 37% to 150% of GDP, whereas private credit from deposit money banks rose marginally from 55% to 65%.) The sustained increase in consumption from borrowing has kept domestic demand high and increased aggregate output. It also created a deficit as domestic lenders acted as intermediaries for foreign investors who sought financial safety in the dollar in the form of liquid financial assets. Over the years this system has exacerbated inequality as lower class consumption and income decreased to the benefit of the wealthy as their consumption and investment assets increased.

Author WilliamPosted on February 17, 2012Categories Economics, UncategorizedTags account, balances, borrowing, current, debt, economic, economics, income, inequality, labor, lending, macroeconomic, saving, savings, theory, wage, wealthLeave a comment on Wealth Disparities and Debt

Income Inequality and Financial Liberation

I’ve been thinking a lot about what’s going on in the US economy. Every time I hear someone talking about how to fix it, I feel that they have it horribly wrong. They just aren’t looking at the facts. They aren’t asking themselves where these facts point. This includes my robotic peers and my calcified professors. Everyone one wants to speculate with their platonic definitions and abstract calculations and no one wants to look at the facts, the actors, to data, the trends, and it’s really disconcerting.

That being said, I’ve just read several journal articles on this topic and one struck me most poignantly, titled Income Inequality and Current Account Imbalances by Kumhof Et Al of the IMF. Not only did their hunches and conclusions resonate with me beautifully, they happened to address the exact questions I’ve been wrestling with in my own journals and writing. It was a relief.

In sum, I believe the that the major source of our problems revolves around global account imbalances. More specifically, the global account imbalances and the low world real interest rates were the primary source that fueled financial instability leading up to the 2007 financial crisis. I believe that the perception of foreign investors that the US was a haven for ‘safe-asset’ investments, compounded by low interest rates post 2001, fueled financial recklessness leading to the financial crisis and our current recession. Before I explain…

Let’s establish the facts– basic facts– and ask ourselves some more questions regarding how these facts came to be (we can get into details later):

  • Rising Income Inequality
    • Top 5% earnings have risen steeply
    • Bottom 95% earnings stagnated
  • High Unemployment: recently between 8-9% (Severe demographic variability)
  • Wealthy own majority of capital assets, liquid or illiquid
    • 80% of US population owns 7% of wealth
    • Wage Stagnation: Real wages have not risen in 30 plus years
  • Consumer Price Index has risen during the same period
  • US Savings rate: Historical Lows; downward trend since early 1980’s
    • Current consumer savings rate 3.75%
  • Massive Consumer debt Increases
    • 33% revolving credit (credit cards)
    • 67% loans (mortgage, car, student, etc)
  • Massive Private Lending Increase
    • From 1998-2008 private credit from other financial institutions, i.e. credit cards, loans, etc., rose from 37% to 150% of GDP
    • From 1998-2008 private credit from deposit money banks rose marginally from 55% to 65% of GDP
  • Rising Global Account Imbalance
    • Rise in Foreign Investment in US
    • US Current Account deficit 3.3% as of Dec. 2011
  • US is the worlds reserve currency: Safe bet for investing
  • US has most developed financial markets
    • High liquidity assets: investing is attractive
  • Debt yields good returns: Debt markets are lucrative and considered “safe assets” (more the case in the past; not so much as of recent)
  • Expansionary Monetary Policy: Federal Interest Rates 0% (Open Market Operations, Quantitative Easing, etc)
    • Buy bonds from banks, Increase bank reserves supply
    • Increases money supply
      • Increase inflation
      • Increases consumer prices (CPI)
    • Lowers interest rates
      • Increase lending/ borrowing
  • Scarcity value: Increased scarcity (decrease supply) drives up prices
  • Bargaining power: the concept related to the relative abilities of parties in a situation to exert influence over each other
    • Wage bargaining: caused wage stagnation
    • Thorstein Veblen describes the manifestation of this sociological phenomenon in his book The Theory of the Leisure Class

These are some basic facts regarding the current state of things. Let’s cite some facts relating to economics, finance, human behavior, and the like:

    • Compounding Interest: Returns are exponentially proportional to investment; the more money you have to invest, the greater the return
    • Investment requires surplus capital, and surplus capital requires saving
    • ‘Wealthiest’ possess vast majority of all surplus (investment) capital and therefore investment power
      • Investment power is concentrated to a very small fraction of the population
    • When investment capital begins to concentrate in one investment area, that investment’s value will begin increasing as the price is bid up (scarcity value), fueling reflexive expectations, which causes speculation, drawing in more (and smaller) investors  and more reflexivity, leading to an eventual bubble and collapse when the largest investors begin pulling their money and running.

Consider the following: High domestic account deficits indicate high income inequality.
Why?

  • The poor and middle class do not have access to international capital markets, they rely on borrowing from the wealthy
  • When Aggregate Output increases and lower class receives smaller share, i.e. decreased income/ wages because lack of bargaining power, they are forced to borrow from wealthy.
    • Due to this borrowing, the lower class’ drop in consumption is less than their drop in real income, while upper class consumption and assets increase along with aggregate output
  • Domestic demand continues to rise, which fuels current account deficit, as wealthy increase their domestic lending and supplement their lending with foreign savings
  • Income inequality is exacerbated.
  • Domestic Political Interventions increase in an effort to alleviate those suffering from stagnant real wage
    • Typically symptomatic treatment through Cheap Borrowing/ Financial Liberalization
  • Short-term success in preventing drop in consumption from lower class.
  • Long-term increases in domestic debt levels, higher debt services, and therefore lower consumption.

The authors of  Income Inequality and Current Account Imbalances look at how income inequality is exacerbated by domestic lending of the rich. As rising aggregate output/GDP is coupled with rising income inequality and stagnating wages, poor/ middle class consumption is less than their drop in income due to domestic lending of the rich. (Prices go up, they get more credit/ debt, buy more, fuels domestic demand, aggregate output increases, current account deficit widens).

The typical short-term political fix is to target policies that allow for cheaper borrowing/ financial liberation (Hence the fed is keeping rates at 0% to increase borrowing). But long-term financial liberation only leads to higher domestic debt levels, higher debt services, and lower worker consumption: it generates increases in workers’ consumption, yet slows down capital accumulation as investors prefer financial over real assets (less value-added investing, more speculative investing, i.e. financial securities, real estate, etc, eventually leads to economic stagflation…. current situation?).

The article continues by discussing historical economic trends and the global repercussions if new policies are not sought to address these systemic issues. They project that the issue of domestic indebtedness will spread globally as the income inequality gap widens and financial liberation continues.

Author WilliamPosted on February 17, 2012Categories Economics, UncategorizedTags account, balances, banks, Bernake, Caballero, consumer, consumption, credit, debt, DSGE, dynamic, equilibrium, fed, federal, Feroli, Ferrero, general, imbalances, income, index, inequality, lending, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, Milesi-Ferretti, Monetary, Obstfeld, policy, Portes, Prasad, price, Rajan, reserve, Rogoff, save, savings, stochastic, wealth, wealthyLeave a comment on Income Inequality and Financial Liberation

Income Inequality and Financial Liberalization

I’ve been thinking a lot about what’s going on in the US economy. Every time I hear someone talking about how to fix it, I feel that they have it horribly wrong. They just aren’t looking at the facts. They aren’t asking themselves where these facts point. This includes my robotic peers and my calcified professors. Everyone one wants to speculate with their platonic definitions and abstract calculations and no one wants to look at the facts, the actors, the data, the trends, and it’s really disconcerting.

That being said, I’ve just read several journal articles on this topic and one struck me most poignantly, titled Income Inequality and Current Account Imbalances by Kumhof Et Al of the IMF. Not only did their hunches and conclusions resonate with me beautifully, they happened to address the exact questions I’ve been wrestling with in my own journals and writing. It was a relief.

In sum, I believe the that the major source of our problems revolves around global account imbalances. More specifically, the global account imbalances and the low world real interest rates were the primary source that fueled financial instability leading up to the 2007 financial crisis. I believe that the perception of foreign investors that the US was a haven for ‘safe-asset’ investments, compounded by low interest rates post 2001, fueled financial recklessness leading to the financial crisis and our current recession. Before I explain…

Let’s establish the facts– basic facts– and ask ourselves some more questions regarding how these facts came to be (we can get into details later):

  • Rising Income Inequality
    • Top 5% earnings have risen steeply
    • Bottom 95% earnings stagnated
  • High Unemployment: recently between 8-9% (Severe demographic variability)
  • Wealthy own majority of capital assets, liquid or illiquid
    • 80% of US population owns 7% of wealth
    • Wage Stagnation: Real wages have not risen in 30 plus years
  • Consumer Price Index has risen during the same period
  • US Savings rate: Historical Lows; downward trend since early 1980’s
    • Current consumer savings rate 3.75%
  • Massive Consumer debt Increases
    • 33% revolving credit (credit cards)
    • 67% loans (mortgage, car, student, etc)
  • Massive Private Lending Increase
    • From 1998-2008 private credit from other financial institutions, i.e. credit cards, loans, etc., rose from 37% to 150% of GDP
    • From 1998-2008 private credit from deposit money banks rose marginally from 55% to 65% of GDP
  • Rising Global Account Imbalance
    • Rise in Foreign Investment in US
    • US Current Account deficit 3.3% as of Dec. 2011
  • US is the worlds reserve currency: Safe bet for investing
  • US has most developed financial markets
    • High liquidity assets: investing is attractive
  • Debt yields good returns: Debt markets are lucrative and considered “safe assets” (more the case in the past; not so much as of recent)
  • Expansionary Monetary Policy: Federal Interest Rates 0% (Open Market Operations, Quantitative Easing, etc)
    • Buy bonds from banks, Increase bank reserves supply
    • Increases money supply
      • Increase inflation
      • Increases consumer prices (CPI)
    • Lowers interest rates
      • Increase lending/ borrowing
  • Scarcity value: Increased scarcity (decrease supply) drives up prices
  • Bargaining power: the concept related to the relative abilities of parties in a situation to exert influence over each other
    • Wage bargaining: caused wage stagnation
    • Thorstein Veblen describes the manifestation of this sociological phenomenon in his book The Theory of the Leisure Class

These are some basic facts regarding the current state of things. Let’s cite some facts relating to economics, finance, human behavior, and the like:

    • Compounding Interest: Returns are exponentially proportional to investment; the more money you have to invest, the greater the return
    • Investment requires surplus capital, and surplus capital requires saving
    • ‘Wealthiest’ possess vast majority of all surplus (investment) capital and therefore investment power
      • Investment power is concentrated to a very small fraction of the population
    • When investment capital begins to concentrate in one investment area, that investment’s value will begin increasing as the price is bid up (scarcity value), fueling reflexive expectations, which causes speculation, drawing in more (and smaller) investors  and more reflexivity, leading to an eventual bubble and collapse when the largest investors begin pulling their money and running.

Consider the following: High domestic account deficits indicate high income inequality.
Why?

  • The poor and middle class do not have access to international capital markets, they rely on borrowing from the wealthy
  • When Aggregate Output increases and lower class receives smaller share, i.e. decreased income/ wages because lack of bargaining power, they are forced to borrow from wealthy.
    • Due to this borrowing, the lower class’ drop in consumption is less than their drop in real income, while upper class consumption and assets increase along with aggregate output
  • Domestic demand continues to rise, which fuels current account deficit, as wealthy increase their domestic lending and supplement their lending with foreign savings
  • Income inequality is exacerbated.
  • Domestic Political Interventions increase in an effort to alleviate those suffering from stagnant real wage
    • Typically symptomatic treatment through Cheap Borrowing/ Financial Liberalization
  • Short-term success in preventing drop in consumption from lower class.
  • Long-term increases in domestic debt levels, higher debt services, and therefore lower consumption.

The authors of  Income Inequality and Current Account Imbalances look at how income inequality is exacerbated by domestic lending of the rich. As rising aggregate output/GDP is coupled with rising income inequality and stagnating wages, poor/ middle class consumption is less than their drop in income due to domestic lending of the rich. (Prices go up, they get more credit/ debt, buy more, fuels domestic demand, aggregate output increases, current account deficit widens).

The typical short-term political fix is to target policies that allow for cheaper borrowing/ financial liberation (Hence the fed is keeping rates at 0% to increase borrowing). But long-term financial liberation only leads to higher domestic debt levels, higher debt services, and lower worker consumption: it generates increases in workers’ consumption, yet slows down capital accumulation as investors prefer financial over real assets (less value-added investing, more speculative investing, i.e. financial securities, real estate, etc, eventually leads to economic stagflation…. current situation?).

The article continues by discussing historical economic trends and the global repercussions if new policies are not sought to address these systemic issues. They project that the issue of domestic indebtedness will spread globally as the income inequality gap widens and financial liberation continues.

Author WilliamPosted on February 17, 2012Categories Economics, UncategorizedTags account, balances, banks, Bernake, Caballero, consumer, consumption, credit, debt, DSGE, dynamic, equilibrium, fed, federal, Feroli, Ferrero, general, imbalances, income, index, inequality, lending, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, Milesi-Ferretti, Monetary, Obstfeld, policy, Portes, Prasad, price, Rajan, reserve, Rogoff, save, savings, stochastic, wealth, wealthyLeave a comment on Income Inequality and Financial Liberalization

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